Surprise…I’m not going to tell you “It’s Time to Sell”

I’m going to let you make that decision, based on the facts of our current real estate market.

The trend – Median sales prices in California have been appreciating for going on 5 years now. More the most part, all loses have been recouped from the 2007 debacle. In 2012 the median rose about 12 percent, in 2013 it was 27 percent, last year we saw about a 10 percent appreciation and this year we’re at about 5. What direction do you think it will take from here?

Supply – The 2015 spring market saw an average appreciation, which was surprising, because the inventory was very low. The supply this spring was only about 1.5 months (meaning if nothing changed and no more came on the market that inventory would be gone). Currently we have about nearly a 2.5 month supply.  Listing inventory has nearly doubled. This isn’t all do to fewer buyers (because the spring market is over), there are also many more sellers listing their homes, and buyers are more cautious, taking their time to find the right home. More sellers believe we are near a peak again. The OC Register reported 8/6/2015, that consumer confidence in long-term appreciation had dropped by 10%.

Demand- The obvious fact that I mentioned above “the spring market is over”, is only part of the demand issue.  Here in Southern California housing affordability has dropped to one of its lowest points in history, 21%. Plus, the age of our average home buyer has moved up again, from 38 two years ago to 48 today. Condos are the new affordability frontier again. Existing condos sale in The O.C. are up 17.9% from a year ago, compared to the 5% home sales.

The proverbial Straw – Chinese government devaluing the Yuan. This monetary imbalance may affect many aspects of our life, most of all real estate values. You see 19% of Southern California homes sales have been to Chinese buyers. This may change drastically.

Where do you think the real estate market is going?

Check your neighborhood stats against those of any other area across the country;  http://www.orangecountyrealestates.com/micompare/zip/92694/

About Scott Stephens

I have been a licensed Realtor in North Orange County since 1994 and a hard working community leader, since buying my first home here, in 1988. Having been the recipient of many awards in both these areas of my life, I guarantee that you will love my service. "I'm Just Here to Help"
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